State Snapshots

state snapshot

state snapshot

Voters in 5 states will determine whether or not to legalize medical and leisure marijuana in November, with billions of dollars in new enterprise alternatives hanging within the stability.

The poll measures additionally promise to have regional ripple results from the East Coast and Deep South to the heartland and Mountain West.

Not a foul turnout for a yr by which much more initiatives have been anticipated to qualify for the November poll, however some have been derailed by the coronavirus pandemic and different components.

Under, you’ll discover detailed snapshots for every of the 5 states, together with what’s on the poll in addition to the outlook for passage.


Poll measure:
Proposition 207
Inhabitants: 7.three million
Projected first-year gross sales: $375 million-$400 million
Projected 2024 gross sales: $700 million-$760 million

If accredited by voters in November, Arizona’s business adult-use marijuana program is anticipated to generate as much as $760 million in gross sales in 2024.

It’s no surprise Arizona’s medical marijuana market has attracted monumental investor curiosity. Between February 2019 and February 2020 alone, seven multistate operators both acquired or expanded operations within the state’s medical hashish market.

Arizona hashish legal professional Janet Jackim not too long ago mentioned in-state and out-of-state marijuana corporations and traders “are attempting to gobble up any (MMJ) licenses they will.”

These acquisitions would repay if the poll measure is profitable, as a result of Arizona’s industry-backed leisure marijuana initiative overwhelmingly favors current MMJ operators.

The initiative additionally calls on the state to challenge 26 social fairness licenses focusing on minority entrepreneurs. State marijuana regulators would determine the ultimate guidelines governing this system.

Arizona-based Harvest Well being & Recreation and Massachusetts-based Curaleaf bankrolled the Good and Protected poll initiative and are poised to be huge winners if it passes.

Harvest already has the most important retail presence within the state with 15 dispensaries supported by 4 cultivation websites and two processing amenities.

Harvest CEO Steve White instructed analysts throughout an earnings name in August that the corporate is increasing its cultivation and processing capability in preparation for adult-use marijuana legalization.

“You’re not going to see what you noticed in Illinois, the place individuals are working out of product,” White mentioned.

Voters narrowly defeated an adult-use measure in 2016, however assist for legalizing leisure marijuana retains rising, so the industry is optimistic the initiative will cross this time round.

 Initiative: Legalize a regulated, business adult-use marijuana market.

Sponsor: Good and Protected Arizona

License alternatives:

  • Arizona has issued roughly 130 vertical medical marijuana licenses to corporations that will be eligible to obtain leisure MJ licenses so long as their operations are in good standing.
  • Further licenses could be out there in counties that don’t have at the very least two MMJ dispensaries.
  • Twenty-six social fairness licenses could be out there to entrepreneurs dwelling in communities disproportionately affected by the warfare on medication by way of a program to be developed by the state well being division.
  • Further leisure marijuana licenses could possibly be granted primarily based on a 1:10 ratio with pharmacies within the state. For instance, if the variety of pharmacies statewide grows by 100, then the state may challenge an extra 10 retail adult-use licenses.

Tax fee: 16% tax on the retail sale of adult-use marijuana merchandise.

Different necessary enterprise components:

  • The initiative would arrange a leisure program rapidly by permitting current medical marijuana operators to use for twin licenses between Jan. 19, 2021, and March 9, 2021. The state would then have 60 days to challenge a license from the time an software was filed.
  • Not-for-profit MMJ companies would have the choice of changing to for-profit standing.
  • Efficiency of infused edibles could be restricted to 10 milligrams of THC per serving, 100 milligrams per package deal.
  • The state could be required to undertake guidelines for supply no later than Jan. 1, 2025, although it may occur as quickly as Jan. 1, 2023.

 Chance of passage: 51% of registered voters mentioned they might vote for the initiative whereas 41% would vote in opposition to it, in response to a ballot carried out in September by Monmouth College.

This margin shrinks amongst doubtless voters in a “high-turnout situation” to 49% for and 43% in opposition to. And it disappears in a “low-turnout situation” of 47% for and 47% in opposition to.


Poll measure: Initiative 65, Initiative 65A
Inhabitants: 2.9 million
Projected first-year gross sales: $240 million-$265 million*
Projected 2024 gross sales: $750 million-$800 million*

* Figures are for Initiative 65 solely.

Mississippi medical marijuana industry advocates hope their state would be the second within the Deep South to legalize MMJ.

A powerful vote of assist, industry consultants say, additionally may affect neighboring states reminiscent of Alabama, which has but to legalize MMJ. However legalization advocates in Mississippi face a battle due to a restrictive competing initiative that triggers a more durable voting threshold for passage.

Citizen advocates put forth a business-friendly measure (Initiative 65) on this conservative state, however then lawmakers countered with a measure that’s largely undefined however would restrict licenses and permit simply terminally unwell sufferers to smoke medical marijuana (Initiative 65A).

“It’s simply one other try (by the Legislature) to kill medical marijuana,” mentioned Jamie Grantham, communications director for the citizen-led Medical Marijuana 2020 Marketing campaign.

With competing measures on the poll, voters will probably be requested two questions: Whether or not MMJ needs to be legalized and, in that case, which initiative the voter favors.

An initiative should obtain at the very least 40% of all votes to cross, in response to the state’s election guidelines. In different phrases, a powerful majority might want to reply sure to the primary query about legalizing medical marijuana after which clearly assist one initiative over one other.

Particulars of the citizen initiative:

Initiative: Legalize a business medical marijuana market by way of a constitutional modification.

 Sponsor: Mississippians for Compassionate Care

License alternatives:

  • State regulators could be prohibited from limiting the variety of MMJ licenses or setting product costs.
  • The initiative requires the Mississippi Division of Well being to undertake remaining program guidelines by July 1, 2021, and begin issuing MMJ licenses no later than Aug. 15, 2021.

Tax fee: A state gross sales tax (at present 7%) would apply. In any other case, self-funded by consumer charges.

Different necessary enterprise components:

  • Dispensaries would have the ability to promote not more than 2.5 ounces of marijuana in 14 days per certified affected person.
  • Greater than 20 medical situations would qualify sufferers for medical marijuana; physicians additionally could be allowed some discretion in recommending MMJ.
  • Medical marijuana operations must be at the very least 500 ft away from church buildings, faculties and child-care facilities.

 Chance of passage: It could possibly be shut. A latest survey by California-based political polling agency FM3 Analysis discovered that the citizen measure may have simply sufficient assist to cross. The ballot, funded by the group behind the citizen initiative, confirmed that 81% of Mississippians favor medical doctors having the ability to suggest medical marijuana and 52% favor the citizen initiative.

If these figures maintain, the citizen initiative would cross with about 42% of the general vote (52% of 81% equals 42.6%).


Poll measure: Initiative 190
Inhabitants: 1.1 million
Estimated 2019 MMJ gross sales: $55 million-$70 million
Projected 2020 MMJ gross sales: $60 million-$75 million

Montana would be part of Colorado and Nevada in legalizing leisure marijuana within the Mountain West if residents vote to cross a business adult-use initiative in November.

The initiative would enable current medical marijuana operators first entry for a yr.

Native jurisdictions may vote to decide out of leisure marijuana, so it’s unclear how strong of a market the state would have—at the very least initially.

The state’s MMJ market is anticipated to succeed in $60 million-$75 million in revenues this yr, in response to the Marijuana Enterprise Factbook.

New Strategy Montana began accumulating signatures for the initiative Might 9, whereas observing strict public well being protocols, after being denied permission to assemble digital signatures.

A latest ballot confirmed a slim majority of residents favor adult-use marijuana legalization, with about 10% of survey respondents nonetheless undecided.

Initiative: Legalize a business leisure marijuana program.

Sponsor: New Strategy Montana

License alternatives:

  • The state Division of Income would license and regulate the industry, with the enterprise license software course of starting by Oct. 1, 2021.
  • Current MMJ operators would get first entry into the adult-use marketplace for a 12-month interval.
  • Montana doesn’t have a medical marijuana license cap and has issued roughly 300 MMJ cultivation licenses, 200 processing licenses and 360 dispensary licenses.
  • Native jurisdictions may maintain elections for voters to determine whether or not to ban adult-use shops.
  • The adult-use initiative requires 10 cultivation tiers of as much as 30,000 sq. ft, plus a micro-tier of as much as 250 sq. ft.

Tax fee: 20% retail gross sales tax.

 Different necessary enterprise components:

  • Smokable flower could be permitted.
  • A seed-to-sale monitoring system could be carried out.
  • Montana residency could be required for licensees.
  • Marijuana operations must be at the very least 500 ft from church buildings and faculties.

Chance of passage: On this reasonably conservative state, residents supported leisure marijuana legalization by a margin of 54% to 37%, with 10% undecided, in response to a College of Montana Massive Sky ballot printed in February 2020.


New Jersey
Poll measure: Public Query 1
Inhabitants: eight.9 million
Projected first-year gross sales: $375 million-$400 million
Projected 2024 gross sales: $850 million-$950 million

New Jersey residents are being requested to legalize a business leisure marijuana program in November that guarantees finally to change into a multibillion-dollar enterprise—one that would spur neighboring states to comply with go well with.

The sparsely worded initiative lacks particulars reminiscent of what number of enterprise licenses could be made out there. These legal guidelines and laws could be hammered out later by state lawmakers and hashish regulators if the measure is profitable with voters.

Scott Rudder, president of the New Jersey CannaBusiness Affiliation, is amongst those that imagine present medical marijuana operators would get first crack on the adult-use market with a view to speed up a market launch that would happen by late 2021.

Rudder predicts a “stage of urgency” for lawmakers to cross the following laws and for regulators to determine the foundations due to strain to generate financial alternatives and tax revenues in wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Bridget Hill-Zayat, a hashish legal professional with Hoban Legislation Group who’s licensed to observe in New Jersey, agreed. “If the motivation is a drive for tax revenues, they’ll need to transfer as rapidly as doable,” she mentioned.

With racial justice much more of a difficulty in latest months, Hill-Zayat mentioned New Jersey may challenge micro-licenses and mortgage applications to encourage candidates from various backgrounds to use.

Municipalities, which may levy as much as a 2% retail tax on adult-use marijuana merchandise, additionally is likely to be extra motivated to opt-in to leisure marijuana, given their very own funds pressures, Rudder mentioned.

Specialists anticipate the poll initiative to cross, noting that the newest polls present roughly two-thirds of New Jersey residents in favor of the initiative.

If New Jersey Public Query 1 is profitable on the poll field, Rob DiPisa, accomplice and co-chair of hashish regulation group Cole Schotz in Hackensack, New Jersey, predicts a market launch within the second half of 2021, given the chance of current MMJ operators to be fast-tracked for grownup use.

 Initiative: Legalize a business leisure marijuana program by constitutional modification.

Sponsor: A supermajority of New Jersey lawmakers handed a measure that put the referendum to legalize an
adult-use marijuana program earlier than voters in November.

 License alternatives:

  • Lawmakers and regulators would determine on the quantity and kind of marijuana enterprise licenses out there, however current MMJ operators are anticipated to get first crack on the adult-use market.
  • Presently, New Jersey has 12 vertical medical marijuana licensees. The state plans to challenge 24 further MMJ licenses—4 of them vertical and the rest stand-alone cultivation, processing and dispensary licenses.
  • Presuming the poll measure is profitable, state lawmakers would cross enabling laws and laws could be developed by the New Jersey Hashish Regulatory Fee, which was created final yr however has but to rise up and working.

 Tax fee: 6.625% gross sales tax on adult-use merchandise. Municipalities may cross ordinances to cost native taxes of as much as 2%.

Chance of passage: Residents favor the legalization proposal by a margin of 68% in favor and 26% in opposition to with 6% not sure, in response to a July ballot commissioned by the hashish regulation observe of Brach Eichler and carried out by DKC Analytics. An April ballot carried out by Monmouth College discovered 61% of respondents in favor of adult-use legalization.


South Dakota
Poll Measures: Modification A and Measure 26
Inhabitants: 884,659
Projected first-year gross sales: $1.5 million-$2 million*
Projected 2024 gross sales: $10 million-$12 million*

* Figures are for medical marijuana solely

South Dakota may change into the primary state within the nation to concurrently legalize medical (Measure 26) and adult-use marijuana (Modification A) in November.

That might be a milestone for the politically conservative state, particularly contemplating that MMJ supporters weren’t in a position to acquire sufficient signatures to get a legalization initiative on the poll in 2018.

Initiative: Legalize a leisure marijuana market by way of a constitutional modification.

Sponsor: South Dakotans for Higher Marijuana Legal guidelines

License alternatives:

  • The initiative requires the state Division of Income to challenge “sufficient licenses to considerably cut back the illicit manufacturing and sale of marijuana all through the state.”
  • However state regulators are also directed within the initiative to restrict licenses “to stop an undue focus” in any municipality.
  • 4 license sorts could be out there: cultivation, wholesale/processing, retail and lab testing.

Different necessary enterprise components:

  • Native jurisdictions may ban marijuana operations of their areas or restrict the places of such operations. However a neighborhood authorities couldn’t prohibit the transportation of marijuana merchandise on public roads by those that are licensed elsewhere.
  • The state Division of Well being must set up program guidelines inside 120 days of the passage of the act, together with scoring standards ought to a neighborhood jurisdiction obtain extra candidates than the variety of licenses allowed.
  • People who’ve a debilitating medical situation as outlined by the state could be eligible for MMJ so long as a doctor certifies the situation. Such situations embody “extreme” or “debilitating” ache.
  • A dispensary couldn’t promote greater than three ounces of hashish to a certified affected person throughout a 14-day interval.


NEXT: The Domino Impact

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